NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · updated 2026-10-10
NEC Nijmegen welcome Levski Sofia to Goffertstadion in Nijmegen in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
NEC Nijmegen have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Levski Sofia have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: NEC Nijmegen 34%, the draw 32%, Levski Sofia 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.02, Levski Sofia 1.04.
- Over 2.5 goals: 34% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Levski Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.31 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.5).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 53.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: season averages side by side
| NEC Nijmegen | Per match this season | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 8 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.31 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 4.8 | On target | 3.4 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 53.1 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.58 |
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 1.02 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.04 for Levski Sofia - with over 2.5 goals at 34% and both teams scoring at 42%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 34%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 2.06 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: questions and answers
When is NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia played?
At Goffertstadion, Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen's home ground.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
It is close: NEC Nijmegen 34%, draw 32%, Levski Sofia 34%. Our prediction is NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 34%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.