Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille · updated 2026-10-10
Olympique Marseille welcome Olympiacos F.C. to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Olympique Marseille have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Olympiacos F.C. have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Olympique Marseille 41%, the draw 27%, Olympiacos F.C. 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Marseille 1.43, Olympiacos F.C. 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Olympiacos F.C.: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.: season averages side by side
| Olympique Marseille | Per match this season | Olympiacos F.C. |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 2 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 2.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 13.2 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 4.8 | On target | 3.5 |
| 56.4 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 14% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 69
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 69
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 59.39 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.81 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.43 for Olympique Marseille and 1.21 for Olympiacos F.C. - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Olympique Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos F.C.
Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.: questions and answers
When is Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C. played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Olympique Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.?
It is close: Olympique Marseille 41%, draw 27%, Olympiacos F.C. 31%. Our prediction is Olympique Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos F.C..
Who is the player to watch in Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Marseille vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.