Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)), Levkosía · updated 2026-10-10
Omonia Nicosia welcome Benfica to Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)) in Levkosía in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Omonia Nicosia have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Benfica have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Benfica are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 28% and Omonia Nicosia at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 1.02, Benfica 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Omonia Nicosia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.75 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.2).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Benfica: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.0).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 61.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: season averages side by side
| Omonia Nicosia | Per match this season | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 0.75 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 4.4 | On target | 6.4 |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 61.3 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.02 for Omonia Nicosia and 1.48 for Benfica - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 50%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Omonia Nicosia 0-1 Benfica
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica betting tips
- Tip 1: Benfica win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.51 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: questions and answers
When is Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica played?
At Neo GSP (Nicosía (Levkosía)), Levkosía, Omonia Nicosia's home ground.
Who will win Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?
Benfica are the favourites: Omonia Nicosia 25%, draw 28%, Benfica 47%. Our prediction is Omonia Nicosia 0-1 Benfica.
How many goals will there be in Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.