Pafos FC vs Riga Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos · updated 2026-10-10
Pafos FC welcome Riga to Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Pafos FC have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 3.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Riga have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Pafos FC 32%, the draw 29%, Riga 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Pafos FC 1.15, Riga 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Pafos FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.49 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.0).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Riga: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.62 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.3).
- Shots: 19.5 a match, 8.2 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Pafos FC vs Riga: season averages side by side
| Pafos FC | Per match this season | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.62 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 19.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 8.2 |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 57.7 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.61 |
Pafos FC vs Riga prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.15 for Pafos FC and 1.28 for Riga - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Pafos FC 1-1 Riga
Pafos FC vs Riga betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.42 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 12.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Pafos FC vs Riga: questions and answers
When is Pafos FC vs Riga?
Pafos FC vs Riga is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Pafos FC vs Riga played?
At Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos, Pafos FC's home ground.
Who will win Pafos FC vs Riga?
It is close: Pafos FC 32%, draw 29%, Riga 39%. Our prediction is Pafos FC 1-1 Riga.
How many goals will there be in Pafos FC vs Riga?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.