Riga vs Kairat Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stadions Skonto, Riga · updated 2026-10-10
Riga welcome Kairat to Stadions Skonto in Riga in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Riga have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Kairat have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Riga are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 35% and Kairat at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Riga 1.02, Kairat 0.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 24% · both teams to score: 31%.
- Most likely score: 0–0 (20%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Riga: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.62 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.3).
- Shots: 19.5 a match, 8.2 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Kairat: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
Riga vs Kairat: season averages side by side
| Riga | Per match this season | Kairat |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 0.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.22 |
| 19.5 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 8.2 | On target | 5.2 |
| 57.7 | Possession % | 55.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 17% |
| 7.7 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.61 | Average rating | 6.52 |
Riga vs Kairat prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 1.7 goals - 1.02 for Riga and 0.65 for Kairat - with over 2.5 goals at 24% and both teams scoring at 31%. Riga have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Riga 1-0 Kairat
Riga vs Kairat betting tips
- Tip 1: Riga win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 1.67 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
- CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Thursday 15 October 2026
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka Thursday 15 October 2026
- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Riga vs Kairat: questions and answers
When is Riga vs Kairat?
Riga vs Kairat is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Riga vs Kairat played?
At Stadions Skonto, Riga, Riga's home ground.
Who will win Riga vs Kairat?
Riga are the favourites: Riga 43%, draw 35%, Kairat 22%. Our prediction is Riga 1-0 Kairat.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Kairat?
Moneyball's model expects about 1.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 24%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.