SC Freiburg vs Jablonec Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 1
Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · updated 2026-10-10
SC Freiburg welcome Jablonec to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
SC Freiburg have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 4.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Jablonec have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 26% and Jablonec at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.69, Jablonec 0.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.23 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Jablonec: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.87 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.8).
- Shots: 7.7 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.55.
SC Freiburg vs Jablonec: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match this season | Jablonec |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 |
| 0.99 | xG conceded | – |
| 19.0 | Shots | 7.7 |
| 6.5 | On target | 3.5 |
| 53.3 | Possession % | 46.3 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.07 | Average rating | 6.55 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, High shot volume (top 15% of his position)
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 72
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.17 / 90 | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.17 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 4.17 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots on target | 60% | 83% |
| Goals | 0.83 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs Jablonec prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.69 for SC Freiburg and 0.93 for Jablonec - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 50%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 1-0 Jablonec
SC Freiburg vs Jablonec betting tips
- Tip 1: SC Freiburg win or draw (double chance) 80% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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SC Freiburg vs Jablonec: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?
SC Freiburg vs Jablonec is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Jablonec played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: SC Freiburg 54%, draw 26%, Jablonec 20%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 1-0 Jablonec.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.