Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Merkur Arena, Graz · updated 2026-10-10
Sturm Graz welcome Olympique Marseille to Merkur Arena in Graz in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Sturm Graz have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Olympique Marseille have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sturm Graz are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 22% and Olympique Marseille at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sturm Graz 2.00, Olympique Marseille 1.02.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sturm Graz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 36.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille: season averages side by side
| Sturm Graz | Per match this season | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| – | xG conceded | 2.11 |
| 15.3 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.8 |
| 36.8 | Possession % | 56.4 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 14% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 69
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 69
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 59.39 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.81 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 2.00 for Sturm Graz and 1.02 for Olympique Marseille - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 56%. Sturm Graz have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sturm Graz 2-1 Olympique Marseille
Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille betting tips
- Tip 1: Sturm Graz to win 59% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille: questions and answers
When is Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille?
Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille played?
At Merkur Arena, Graz, Sturm Graz's home ground.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille?
Sturm Graz are the favourites: Sturm Graz 59%, draw 22%, Olympique Marseille 18%. Our prediction is Sturm Graz 2-1 Olympique Marseille.
Who is the player to watch in Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.