Thun vs Hajduk Split Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stockhorn Arena, Thun · updated 2026-10-10
Thun welcome Hajduk Split to Stockhorn Arena in Thun in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Thun have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Hajduk Split have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Hajduk Split are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 20% and Thun at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Thun 1.62, Hajduk Split 2.43.
- Over 2.5 goals: 77% · both teams to score: 73%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Thun: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Hajduk Split: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.36 a match created (goals minus xG: +12.6).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Thun vs Hajduk Split: season averages side by side
| Thun | Per match this season | Hajduk Split |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 3.5 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.36 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 11.3 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.3 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 51.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.53 |
Thun vs Hajduk Split prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.62 for Thun and 2.43 for Hajduk Split - with over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 73%. Hajduk Split have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Thun 1-2 Hajduk Split
Thun vs Hajduk Split betting tips
- Tip 1: Hajduk Split to win 55% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 77% by the model, 4.04 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 73% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
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- Mjällby vs Inter Club d'Escaldes Thursday 15 October 2026
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor Thursday 15 October 2026
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Gent vs AGF Thursday 15 October 2026
- Hajduk Split vs Ajax Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda Thursday 15 October 2026
Thun vs Hajduk Split: questions and answers
When is Thun vs Hajduk Split?
Thun vs Hajduk Split is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Thun vs Hajduk Split played?
At Stockhorn Arena, Thun, Thun's home ground.
Who will win Thun vs Hajduk Split?
Hajduk Split are the favourites: Thun 25%, draw 20%, Hajduk Split 55%. Our prediction is Thun 1-2 Hajduk Split.
How many goals will there be in Thun vs Hajduk Split?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 77%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.