TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 2
Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-10-10
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Beşiktaş to PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Beşiktaş have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 86% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Beşiktaş are narrow favourites at 60%, with the draw at 24% and TSG Hoffenheim at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 0.85, Beşiktaş 1.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Beşiktaş: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.45 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 17.9 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 62.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 71% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 14% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.45 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | – |
| 19.0 | Shots | 17.9 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.9 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 62.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 71% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 14% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Leon Avdullahu DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 59 · Press-resistant, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
- Vladimír Coufal RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Hard to dribble past (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak, 26 · TSG Hoffenheim · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66
Ozan Kabak, 26, plays as a centre-back for TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 66
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.45 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 7.74 / 90 | 95% |
| Clearances | 8.77 / 90 | 93% |
| Blocked shots | 1.55 / 90 | 91% |
| Dribbled past | 0.26 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, Box defender.
- What Ozan Kabak is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ozan Kabak's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 0.85 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.82 for Beşiktaş - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 49%. Beşiktaş have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 0-1 Beşiktaş
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş betting tips
- Tip 1: Beşiktaş to win 60% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.67 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş is on Thursday 15 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş played?
At PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 16%, draw 24%, Beşiktaş 60%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 0-1 Beşiktaş.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş?
Ozan Kabak of TSG Hoffenheim: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.