TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-10-10
TSG Hoffenheim welcome Olympique Lyonnais to PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
TSG Hoffenheim have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Olympique Lyonnais have played 5 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Lyonnais are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and TSG Hoffenheim at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 1.27, Olympique Lyonnais 2.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
TSG Hoffenheim: form and key numbers
In style TSG Hoffenheim keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Olympique Lyonnais: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Lyonnais play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais: season averages side by side
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.4 |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.0 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Leon Avdullahu DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 59 · Press-resistant, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
Olympique Lyonnais
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Corentin Tolisso CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Reads the game (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 22 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 69
Ernest Nuamah, 22, plays as a winger for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.66 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.10 / 90 | 89% |
| Dispossessed | 0.59 / 90 | 81% |
| Big chances created | 0.59 / 90 | 73% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.05 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Press-resistant.
- What Ernest Nuamah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ernest Nuamah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction
TSG Hoffenheim should have more of the ball; TSG Hoffenheim are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Olympique Lyonnais go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.27 for TSG Hoffenheim and 2.03 for Olympique Lyonnais - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 63%. Olympique Lyonnais have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais
TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais betting tips
- Tip 1: Olympique Lyonnais win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais: questions and answers
When is TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais?
TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais played?
At PreZero Arena, Sinsheim, TSG Hoffenheim's home ground.
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Olympique Lyonnais are the favourites: TSG Hoffenheim 23%, draw 23%, Olympique Lyonnais 54%. Our prediction is TSG Hoffenheim 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais.
Who is the player to watch in TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Ernest Nuamah of Olympique Lyonnais: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.