Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf · updated 2026-10-10
Union Saint-Gilloise welcome Hapoel Be'er Sheva to Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Union Saint-Gilloise have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Union Saint-Gilloise 41%, the draw 24%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Union Saint-Gilloise 1.69, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Union Saint-Gilloise: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 4.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.48.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.51 a match created (goals minus xG: +6.9).
- Shots: 9.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: season averages side by side
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Per match this season | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.51 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.2 |
| 39.5 | Possession % | 50.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 4.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.48 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.69 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.56 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.25 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 12.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: questions and answers
When is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva played?
At Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf, Union Saint-Gilloise's home ground.
Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
It is close: Union Saint-Gilloise 41%, draw 24%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 35%. Our prediction is Union Saint-Gilloise 1-1 Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
How many goals will there be in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.